[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 20 09:41:12 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the last
24 hours from 320 km/s to below 300 km/s. The density of the
solar wind however has increased to high levels; from 3 p/cc
to 14 p/cc. This is consistent with the imminent arrival of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream within the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11120101
Darwin 4 22121102
Learmonth 2 11021101
Culgoora 3 11220111
Camden 2 11020001
Canberra 1 01020001
Hobart 1 01020001
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1210 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Oct 25 Active. Chance minor storm periods.
22 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 20-21 October. Quiet geomagnetic
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase over the next 48 hours as an
equatorial coronal hole moves into a geo-effective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Fair Fair Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed at low latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Depressed HF conditions are expected
to continue at all latitudes for several days as geomagnetic
activity increases.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 10 - 30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 5 - 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -8 Depressions to 15 - 30% are possible at low and
at high latitudes. Mid latitudes are expected
to be close to predicted monthly values.
21 Oct -10 Depressions to 30% are expected at all latitudes.
22 Oct -5 Depressions to 20% are possible at low and at
high latitudes. Mid latitudes are expected to
be close to predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions.
Depressed ionospheric support is expected to continue over
the next 48 hours as geomagnetic activity increases.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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