[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 24 09:53:18 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has shown a steady decline but remains 
at an elevated level of 530 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF 
fluctuated between +/- 4 nT. Observed solar activity associated 
with region 917 was at very low levels. US SXI and ESA EIT satellite 
imagery show a recurring near-equatorial coronal hole region 
approximately 3 days from a geo-effective position. Further high 
speed wind streams associated with this region are likely around 
26 or 27 Oct. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11121112
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Learmonth            4   21111112
      Culgoora             3   10121121
      Camden               3   1102111-
      Canberra             2   10021111
      Hobart               3   11022111
      Casey(Ant)           9   -3331113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   2531 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct     6    Quiet 
25 Oct     6    Quiet 
26 Oct    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours 
and are expected to remain quiet over the next 48 hours. US SXI 
and ESA EIT satellite imagery show a recurring near-equatorial 
coronal hole region approximately 3 days from a geo-effective 
position. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase around 26 
to 27 Oct as this region becomes geo-effective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
26 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions were observed 0 - 
15 UT at low and mid latitudes. Similar depressions, particularly 
at low latitudes, are expected over the next 2 days. Depressions 
at all latitudes are likely around 26 to 27 Oct with an expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15 to 30% between 0 and 15 UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% between 0 and 15 UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% between 0 and 15 UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct    -5    Depressions of 15 to 30% are likely at all low latitudes. 
25 Oct    -5    Depressions of 15 to 30% are likely at all low latitudes. 
26 Oct    -8    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 0 
and 15 UT in Pacific/Equatorial, Northern Australian and Southern 
Australian regions. Similar conditions are expected over the 
next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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