[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 15 09:49:51 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Currently there are no regions on disk. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next few days. The north-south
component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field), Bz fluctuated
between +/-10nT for the first half of the UT day and its magnitude
declined to be 5nT at the time of this report. There was no
prolonged periods of southward IMF. Solar wind velocity remained
steady at 550km/s due coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 33343333
Darwin - --------
Learmonth 16 33243432
Culgoora - --------
Camden 14 33333323
Canberra 18 33343433
Hobart 18 33443333
Casey(Ant) 19 35432333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 24 2344 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 13 Unsettled to Active
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind parameters remain elevated
- while Bz's fluctuations fell from +/-10nT to be +/-5nT at the
time of this report. No prolonged southward excursions for Bz.
Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
with possible isolated Active periods.
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1059UT on 14 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some depressed HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
Disturbed conditions observed for high latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for all regions in the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected to for the next 24
hours, with depressions of 20% below monthly values possible
for Southern Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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