[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 16 09:49:06 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Currently there are no regions on disk. Activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next few days. The north-south
component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field), Bz fluctuated
between +/-4nT throughout the UT day. Solar wind velocity has
begun to decline, from 600km/s at 0000UT to be 525km/s at the
time of this report.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 23332221
Darwin - --------
Learmonth 9 22332231
Culgoora 7 13222221
Camden 8 23231221
Canberra 8 23232221
Hobart 8 23232221
Casey(Ant) 13 --433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Charters_Towers 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 4433 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind parameters have begun to decline
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. Bz's
fluctuations ranged between +/-4nT for most of the UT day. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions observed for high
latitudes. Improving conditions are expected for low to mid
latitudes over the next 24 hours as geomagnetic activity declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
18 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for all regions in the last
24 hours. Improving conditions are expected for Northern
Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions over the next 24 hours
as geomagnetic activity subsides. Disturbed conditions are
expected for Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list