[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 14 09:54:37 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain this way for the next few days whilst there
are no active regions currently on disk. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-10nT
throughout the UT day. There was a sustained period of southward
IMF between 0600UT to 0800UT. Solar wind velocity steadily increased
from 400km/s to be 500km/s at the time of this report, due to
the influence of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 23333233
Darwin 15 33------
Learmonth 14 22333343
Culgoora 3 11------
Camden 12 13333233
Canberra 12 13333233
Hobart 14 13334233
Casey(Ant) 15 3-433233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2111 1203
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Isolated Active periods observed at mid to
high latitudes with notable southward Bz periods. Unsettled to
Active conditions are expected for the next 2 days while the
earth is under the influence of the current coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some depressed conditions observed for low latitudes
along with sporadic E. Mid latitudes mostly normal with some
observed spread F and depressed conditions for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, but with
the chance of further disturbed periods for high and possibly
mid latitudes due to increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions. Depressed MUF's for Antarctic regions as well as for
Northern Aus/Equatorial regions during local evening. Similar
conditions are expected for each region over the next 24 hours
with possible disturbances and depressions for Southern Aus/NZ
and Antarctic regions due the increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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