[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 22 10:08:49 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain very low today 
as well. The solar wind speed remained between 350 and 450 
km/s for most part of the UT day  today.  The  north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained 
slightly to moderately positive (upto around +6nT) for most 
part  of  the  UT day  today. Solar activity is expected to 
remain  at  very low  levels for the next 3 days. A coronal 
hole  effect  may  strengthen  the  solar  wind  stream for 
approximately 3 days, starting on 23 Novebmer. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212111
      Darwin               3   21112101
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            4   22202101
      Culgoora             4   21201221
      Camden               1   10101001
      Canberra             1   10101001
      Hobart               1   20101000
      Casey(Ant)           6   -2322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     4    Quiet 
23 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
24 Nov    18    Mostly active. 
COMMENT:  Geomagnetic activity  is  expected to remain at 
quiet  levels  on  22 November.  The  effect of a coronal 
hole  may  raise the  activity to active levels on 23 and 
24 November with some possibility of isolated minor storm 
periods on these days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal        
23 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
24 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mild  depressions in  MUFs continued at low and 
mid latitudes today as well. This trend may continue for 
the next several days.  Mild to  moderate depressions in 
MUFs  and degradations in HF conditions may be observed, 
especially on the mid  and high  latitudes, on 23 and 24 
November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Nov     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
      minor depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Nov    -6    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
24 Nov    -8    20 to 35% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The Australian region has shown mild depressions 
in MUFs today. Mild  to moderate  depressions in MUFs and 
degradatios in  HF  conditions may  be expected on 23 and 
24 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    51800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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