[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 22 10:08:49 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain very low today
as well. The solar wind speed remained between 350 and 450
km/s for most part of the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
slightly to moderately positive (upto around +6nT) for most
part of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. A coronal
hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream for
approximately 3 days, starting on 23 Novebmer.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21212111
Darwin 3 21112101
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 4 22202101
Culgoora 4 21201221
Camden 1 10101001
Canberra 1 10101001
Hobart 1 20101000
Casey(Ant) 6 -2322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 4 Quiet
23 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Nov 18 Mostly active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at
quiet levels on 22 November. The effect of a coronal
hole may raise the activity to active levels on 23 and
24 November with some possibility of isolated minor storm
periods on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
23 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
24 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs continued at low and
mid latitudes today as well. This trend may continue for
the next several days. Mild to moderate depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed,
especially on the mid and high latitudes, on 23 and 24
November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Nov -6 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov -8 20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian region has shown mild depressions
in MUFs today. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradatios in HF conditions may be expected on 23 and
24 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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