[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 23 10:42:48 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain very low today. The
B-class X-ray background flux observed on the GOES satellite
for the last couple of days declined to A-class levels. The solar
wind speed declined from the high to low 300 km/sec range over
the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly was positive (north) until ~17UT
before turning southward for just over 2 hours and has now returned
to northward. IMF merging effects should therefore only be occurring
at polar latitudes early in the next UT day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. A
recurrent coronal hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream
from 23 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11223122
Darwin 7 11223123
Townsville 9 12233123
Learmonth 8 21233222
Culgoora 5 11222122
Camden 5 11222122
Canberra 5 10222122
Hobart 5 11222122
Casey(Ant) 8 22223123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 12 Unsettled
24 Nov 18 active
25 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 23 November UT day. The effect of a coronal hole may raise
the activity to unsettled and active levels on 23-25 November.
Polar activity is raised due to IMF Bz southward ~17UT but expected
to decline as IMF has returned northward ~22UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs up to 30% continued at low latitudes
particularly at night. Degradations in HF conditions may be observed
23-25 November, particularly at equatorial and polar latitudes
due to a rise in geomagnetic activity from a recurrent coronal
hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -6 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov -8 20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australasian equatorial region (PNG, Niue, northern
Australia) has shown fairly strong depressions in MUFs today.
Mid-latitudes slightly below average. Degradations in HF conditions
may be expected on 23-25 Nov due to a recurrent coronal hole
increasing geomagnetic activity and also a lack of sunspot activity
to produce ionising flux to regenerate the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 14000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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