[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 21 10:07:52 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The solar
wind speed increased from 370 to 450 km/s (approx.) during
the first half of the UT day and then decreased to 270 by
1800UT. The solar wind speed has again gone up to 400 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly
to moderately positive (upto around +6nT) for most part
of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next 3 days. A coronal hole
effect may strengthen the solar wind stream from 23 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 4 21113101
Culgoora 5 21212121
Camden 3 21112010
Canberra 2 11112010
Hobart 2 11112000
Casey(Ant) 8 23-32211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1111 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 4 Quiet
22 Nov 5 Quiet
23 Nov 15 Quiet to active.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
at quiet levels for the next two days. The effect of a
coronal hole may raise the activity to active levels on
the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Nov Fair-normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs noted on most locations.
This trend may continue for the next several days. Mild
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed, especially on the mid and high
latitudes, on 23 November due to an expected rise in the
geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Nov -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Nov -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian region has shown mild depressions
in MUFs today. This trend may continue over the next several
days. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradatios
in HF conditions may be expected on 23 November due to an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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