[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 21 10:07:52 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The solar 
wind speed increased from 370 to 450 km/s (approx.) during 
the  first half of the UT day and then decreased to 270 by 
1800UT. The solar wind speed has again gone up to 400 km/s 
by  the time  of this report. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary  magnetic  field (Bz) remained slightly 
to moderately  positive (upto around +6nT) for  most  part 
of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to  remain 
at  very low  levels for  the  next 3 days. A coronal hole 
effect may strengthen the solar wind stream from 23 November. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112111
      Darwin               3   11112101
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            4   21113101
      Culgoora             5   21212121
      Camden               3   21112010
      Canberra             2   11112010
      Hobart               2   11112000
      Casey(Ant)           8   23-32211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1111 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     4    Quiet 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
23 Nov    15    Quiet to active. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
at quiet  levels for the next two days. The effect of a 
coronal hole may raise the activity to active levels on 
the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
22 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
23 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Fair          
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs noted on most locations. 
This  trend  may continue  for the next several days. Mild 
to  moderate  depressions in  MUFs and  degradations in HF 
conditions may be observed, especially on the mid and high 
latitudes, on 23 November due  to an  expected rise in the 
geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Nov    -2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Nov   -10    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The Australian region has  shown  mild  depressions 
in MUFs today. This trend may continue over the next several 
days. Mild to moderate  depressions  in MUFs and degradatios 
in HF  conditions  may be  expected on 23 November due to an 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    32600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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