[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: The solar wind is approximately 400 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained mainly northward 
for the last 16 hours, 0 to 5nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           7   32211222
      Learmonth            3   22201011
      Culgoora             6   22311121
      Camden               3   22201110
      Canberra             4   22211011
      Hobart               5   22310111
      Casey(Ant)          13   44-31222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2201 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled at low to
mid latitudes and active at high latitudes. Expect the activity
to return to quiet levels over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Expect high latitudes to have mild depression today 
due to geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov    12    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Nov    15    near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The Southern Australian region may experience mild
depressions due to a slightly disturbed magnetic field. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    52300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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