[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 16 10:34:24 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar wind is approximately 360 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained southward for
the last several hours, approximately -4nT. The Solar Sector
Boundry crossing occurred around 1400 UT 15 November. An emerging
flux region 0924 produced an unexpected C1 xray flare. Isolated
C-class flares may continue if this region continues to grow.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Darwin 4 12121112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22121112
Culgoora 6 22221222
Camden 5 12221112
Canberra 6 32221112
Hobart 3 12210012
Casey(Ant) 10 34321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 16 Unsettled to active
17 Nov 12 Unsettled
18 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to increase to unsettle
to active levels today, as a result of the Solar Sector Boundry
crossing and the southward orientation of the interplanetary
magnetic field. Active levels should be restricted to higher
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Low latitudes appear to be returning normal levels due
to increased EUV levels from active solar regions. Expect possible
mild depressions at high latitudes today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Northern Australian region HF conditions appear to be
returning to normal levels as EUV levels increase due to active
regions on the solar disk. The Southern Australian region may
experience mild depressions due to a slightly disturbed magnetic
field over the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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