[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 15 10:07:01 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar wind is approximately 400 km/s with the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field slightly northward.
Expect a Solar Sector Boundry crossing earily on 16 November
Universial Time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21111212
Culgoora - --------
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 4 11122120
Hobart 3 11112111
Casey(Ant) 7 2-332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 4 Quiet
16 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect quiet levels of geomagnetic activity today. On
16 November expect activity to increase slightly do to Solar Sector
Boundry crossing.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Low latitudes have shown mild depressions, expect this
trend to continue over the next several days. Possible mild
depressions at high latitudes on 17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Nov 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Nov 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect mild depressions to continue in the Northern
Australian region and possible mild depressions in the polar
regions on 17 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 71800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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