[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: The solar wind is approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward between 09-13UT 
reaching -5nT. Region 0923 has been quiet, however shows some 
complexity in its magnetic field and still has potential for 
isolated C-class xray flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22213211
      Darwin               6   22113212
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            6   22113211
      Culgoora             7   22213221
      Camden               5   22113110
      Canberra             5   22113210
      Hobart               7   22114211
      Casey(Ant)          11   33333221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   5210 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     4    Quiet 
20 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to unsettled to active 
for a short period due to the Bz component of the interplanetary 
field maintaining a southward orientation from 09-13UT. Expect 
the geomagnetic field to return to quiet levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15-25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 
20 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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