[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 12 10:03:41 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day. 
Solar wind speed remains elevated at ~600 km/s under the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32333322
      Darwin              13   32333323
      Townsville          13   32333332
      Learmonth           15   32324432
      Culgoora            11   32333222
      Camden              12   32333322
      Canberra            13   32433322
      Hobart              14   33433322
      Casey(Ant)          21   44434333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Camden              41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             36   4646 5332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Nov     4    Quiet 
14 Nov     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid latitudes,

with an isolated active interval at some stations in the first 
half of the UT day. Active to minor storm conditions at high 
latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at around 600km/s. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained 
near neutral. Solar wind parameters should decline today. Chance 
of active to minor storm intervals day one at high latitudes. 
Expect generally quiet conditions days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed at low latitudes. Variable 
post-dawn depressions observed at mid latitudes, recovering later. 
Periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association 
with geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal conditions next 
three days. Possibility of periods of disturbance at high latitudes 
day one, and continuing low-latitude variability. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
13 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
14 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Periods of degradation observed for Antarctic region 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further intervals of disturbance
possible day one, mainly Antarctic region. Expect variable ionospheric
conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   226000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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