[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 12 10:03:41 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
Solar wind speed remains elevated at ~600 km/s under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 32333322
Darwin 13 32333323
Townsville 13 32333332
Learmonth 15 32324432
Culgoora 11 32333222
Camden 12 32333322
Canberra 13 32433322
Hobart 14 33433322
Casey(Ant) 21 44434333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Camden 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 36 4646 5332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 4 Quiet
14 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid latitudes,
with an isolated active interval at some stations in the first
half of the UT day. Active to minor storm conditions at high
latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at around 600km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained
near neutral. Solar wind parameters should decline today. Chance
of active to minor storm intervals day one at high latitudes.
Expect generally quiet conditions days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed at low latitudes. Variable
post-dawn depressions observed at mid latitudes, recovering later.
Periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal conditions next
three days. Possibility of periods of disturbance at high latitudes
day one, and continuing low-latitude variability.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of degradation observed for Antarctic region
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further intervals of disturbance
possible day one, mainly Antarctic region. Expect variable ionospheric
conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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