[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:21:58 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day. 
Type III radio noise observed over the period. Active Region 
923 appears to be in decay, but still has potential for isolated 
C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed remains elevated at 
Slow-drifting Type IV noise continuum observed on Learmonth and 
Culgoora Radiospectrographs this morning. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   35354232
      Darwin              16   34343223
      Townsville          18   34344332
      Learmonth           20   34254332
      Culgoora            20   34354232
      Camden              21   35354222
      Canberra            22   35354232
      Hobart              26   35455232
      Casey(Ant)          25   -6443232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Camden              52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   0000 1344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    12    Unsettled 
12 Nov     6    Quiet 
13 Nov     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes 
during the mid-part of the UT day, with conditions reaching minor 
to major storm levels at mid to high latitudes. Solar wind speed 
reached 600 km/s at 13UT and remains at that level. Moderate 
Bz component fluctuations were observed in the first half of 
the UT day, declining to mild fluctuations about neutral over 
the second half of the day. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
unsettled on day one as the coronal hole wind stream declines, 
becoming mainly quiet days two and three. Chance of isolated 
active intervals at mid to high latitudes day one. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed at low latitudes. Extended 
periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association 
with geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal conditions next 
three days. Possibility of periods of disturbance at high latitudes 
day one. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Localised strong daytime enhancements.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Extended periods of disturbance.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
13 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Periods of degradation observed for Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further intervals 
of disturbance possible day one, mainly Antarctic region. Expect 
variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions next 
three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    14300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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