[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 10 10:30:24 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
Type III radio noise observed over the period. Active Region
923 appears to be in decay, but still has potential for isolated
C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed has increased steadily
since 12UT, indicating onset of the anticipated coronal hole
wind stream. The coronal hole feature has diminished significantly
in area over the past two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 11102343
Darwin 9 11102343
Townsville 11 22212343
Learmonth 11 10002444
Culgoora 9 11102343
Camden 7 11002333
Canberra 8 10101343
Hobart 7 11101333
Casey(Ant) 8 22221233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 12 Unsettled
11 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed at all latitudes for the first
half of the UT day. Solar wind parameters indicate onset of the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream after 12UT, with unsettled
to active conditions observed over the second half of the day.
Although the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
has trended moderately (-15nT) southward later in the UT day,
solar wind speed has been limited and geomagnetic activity has
remained at mostly unsettled levels in the Australasian region.
The coronal hole feature appears to be in decay and geomagnetic
disturbance may be brief and less severe than recurrence suggests.
Expect unsettled conditions day one with the chance of active
intervals, possible minor storm intervals at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at mid
to high latitudes for 10 November. Expect variable propagation
conditions at low latitudes, mainly days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable depressions up to 25% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 8 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November (SWFs). Slightly degraded
HF conditions are possible for 10 November for Southern
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Expect variable ionospheric conditions at low latitudes 11 - 12
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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