[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 9 10:25:45 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
East limb loop prominence activity associated with AR 923 has
been less than the previous few days. There is a possibility
of isolated C- to M-class flare activity from AR 923. A slow,
narrow SW-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after
0842. This was probably a far-side event, although a Type IV
radio sweep was reported about this time. Solar wind speed remains
at nominal levels, but is expected to increase during the next
24 hours as an equatorial coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position. A transit of Mercury across the visible solar disk
is in progress at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 2 20100011
Culgoora 2 11200111
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 10010000
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 20 active
10 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed at all latitiudes over the
past 24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on
day one as a small equatorial coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position. Possible minor storm intervals at high latitudes.
Possibility of additional minor disturbance on day one resulting
from the recent CME sequence. Conditions should decline to mostly
unsettled on day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days at low latitudes. Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible
at mid to high latitudes for 9 - 10 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 Nov -5 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 8 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November (SWFs). Mostly normal
conditions are expected for the next few days Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 9 -10
November for Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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