[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 8 10:51:27 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: An active region on the east limb was the source of
three C-class flares observed during 7 November. Further C-class
and possible M-class flare activity is expected from this region
as it rotates onto the visible disk. Further review of the LASCO
imagery has identified that the larger of the two C-class flares
observed on 6 November originated from the active region on the
east limb. LASCO imagery analysis also suggests there is a small
chance of the flank of the CME associated with the flare observed
at 1742UT on 6 November having an glancing impact on the earth.
A small coronal hole towards the center of the disk will be rotating
into a geoeffective position over the next few days, with mildly
elevated solar wind speeds expected. Solar wind speeds have been
below 340 km/s during the past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 1 11000001
Culgoora 2 11100111
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 5 3-221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 6 Quiet
09 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 8 November.
Geomagnetic activity levels are expected to increase on 9-10
November as the result of mildly elevated solar wind speeds from
a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. There is the small
chance that a glancing blow from a CME observed on 6 November
may further compound the coronal hole effects, although the CME
is not expected to be very geoeffective. Mostly unsettled to
active levels are exptected with possible minor storm levels
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days. Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 10 November
for mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days. Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 10 November
for southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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