[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 13 10:26:15 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Region 10923 has produced several C-class xray flares, 
expect this trend to continue. The solar wind is just under 500 
km/s with the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
mostly between -/+2nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222112
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            4   22122101
      Culgoora             5   12221221
      Camden               4   12222011
      Canberra             6   -2222013
      Hobart               4   12222011
      Casey(Ant)          12   -4333112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20   3444 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     6    Quiet 
14 Nov     6    Quiet 
15 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect generally quiet conditions for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Low latitudes have shown mild depressions, expect this 
trend to continue over the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect mild depressions to continue in the Northern 
Australian region, otherwise normal conditions should prevail. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 610 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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