[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 3 10:49:16 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: There is the chance of further C-class flare activity
and an increasing possibility of M-class flare activity should
regions 921 and 922 continue to develop in size and complexity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21122222
Darwin 6 21122222
Learmonth 8 31122232
Culgoora 7 21112233
Camden 5 11122222
Canberra 6 21122222
Hobart 6 21122222
Casey(Ant) 10 23222233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 6 Quiet
04 Nov 6 Quiet
05 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at high latitudes.
Generally quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at equatorial-low
latitudes. Conditions have been near normal for all other latitudes.
Expect continuing equatorial-low latitude variability with normal
conditions at all other latitudes for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed equatorial/PNG
regions. Mild depressions observed at times for northern Australian
to equatorial regions. Variable ionospheric conditions are expected
to continue for northern Australian to equatorial regions, with
the chance of mildly depressed intervals. Mostly near predicted
monthly values are expected for all other regions for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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