[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 4 10:44:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar regions 921 and 922 have stabilised during the
past 24 hours, although there is still the chance of C-class
flare activity from solar region 921. Solar wind parameters suggest
a very weak shock impacted the earth approximately 0940UT on
3 November. This was possibly the result of the very faint CME
observed on 31st October. This CME was thought to be the result
of a backside event but could possibly have been related to a
disappearing solar filament observed that day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22134211
Darwin 7 21133121
Learmonth 9 22134211
Culgoora 9 22134211
Camden 8 12134111
Canberra 8 12134211
Hobart 8 12234210
Casey(Ant) 10 3-233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2311 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 6 Quiet
06 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak shock in the solar wind resulted in an isolated
active period, otherwise conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
for 3 November. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at equatorial-low
latitudes. Conditions have been near normal for other latitudes.
Expect continuing equatorial-low latitude variability with mostly
normal conditions at other latitudes for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed equatorial/PNG
regions with mild depressions observed at times. Variable ionospheric
conditions are expected to continue for equatorial regions, with
the chance of mildly depressed intervals. Mostly near predicted
monthly values are expected for all other regions for the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 28100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list