[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 2 10:52:00 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: There is the possibility of C-class flare activity from
solar region 921.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22113212
Darwin 5 12113112
Learmonth 6 21013222
Culgoora 6 21113222
Camden 6 12113212
Canberra 6 12113212
Hobart 5 12113211
Casey(Ant) 11 3-3232--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 6 Quiet
04 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at high latiudes,
with isolated active intervals at polar cusp/cap latitudes. Generally
quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at equatorial-low
latitudes. Conditions have been near-normal for all other latitudes.
Expect continuing equatorial-low latitude variability with normal
conditions at all other latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed Equatorial/PNG
regions. Mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect continuing variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N
Aus regions, with the chance of intervals of mild depressions.
Mostly near predicted monthly values for all other regions for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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