[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 1 10:19:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Newly numbered
active region 921 has shown significant growth over the UT day,
and some surging has been observed in LASCO EIT imagery. A weak
full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery during the first
half of the UT day. Absence of front-side signatures suggests
this is a far-side event. Solar wind speed continued to decline
over the UT day and is steady at around 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11112112
Darwin 5 11112213
Learmonth 3 10012212
Culgoora 5 -3111122
Camden 2 10101112
Canberra 3 10112112
Hobart 3 11102112
Casey(Ant) 11 33332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3223 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 4 Quiet
02 Nov 3 Quiet
03 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at high latiudes,
with isolated active intervals at polar cusp/cap latitudes. Solar
wind parameters continue to decline. Expect generally quiet conditions
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at low latitudes.
Conditions have been near-normal at mid to high latitudes. Expect
continuing low-latitude variability.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed Equatorial/PNG
regions. Mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect continuing variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N
Aus regions, with the chance of intervals of depressed conditions,
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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