[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 20 09:41:01 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no flare activity
and the background solar xray flux level remains below 10e-7
W/m^2. Solar activity is expected to remain at these very low
levels while there are no active regions on disc. Bz, the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-5 nT, though being predominently northward over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity remained at elevated levels, due to coronal
hole effects, between 520km/s and 580km/s over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 7 23311121
Darwin 7 23311122
Learmonth 7 23311121
Culgoora 4 22211111
Camden 5 22212121
Canberra 7 2-411111
Hobart 5 22302111
Casey(Ant) 11 34322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Canberra 68 (Active)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 2232 2542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 May 6 Quiet
22 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days with the chance for isolated Active periods
while solar wind parameters remain elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes, disturbed periods observed for high latitudes and
some sporadic E over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 24-48 hours due to the increase in
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 20 near predicted monthly values
21 May 20 near predicted monthly values
22 May 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for all regions
except for disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic
regions. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
24 hours with the chance of disturbed ionospheric support for
Antarctic and Southern Aus/NZ regions due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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