[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 21 09:51:48 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no major flare
activity. Solar activity is expected to remain at these very
low levels as the current regions on disk are both small in
overall sunspot size and magnetically simple. A small non earth
directed CME was observed in the LASCO imagery between 0000UT
and 0400UT and was most likely a backside event. Solar wind
paramters have begun to decline from the elevated levels reached
from recent coronal hole effects. Bz, the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity declined from 580km/s at
0000UT to be 500km/s at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22231111
Darwin 5 22221111
Learmonth 6 12231211
Culgoora 5 11231111
Camden 6 21231122
Canberra 6 21231221
Hobart 5 11231111
Casey(Ant) 11 33332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2230 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 7 Quiet
22 May 6 Quiet
23 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes, but with some mildly depressed periods.
Disturbed HF conditions observed for high latitudes with notable
sporadic E. Similar but improving conditions for all regions
are expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 20 near predicted monthly values
22 May 20 near predicted monthly values
23 May 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions as well as Northern Aus - but with mild depressed conditions
during local night. Disturbed ionospheric conditions observed
for Antarctic regions. These conditions are expected to improve
over the next 24 hours as geomagnetic activty continues to decline.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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