[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 19 09:56:50 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no flare activity 
and the background solar xray flux level remains below 10e-7 
W/m^2. Solar activity is expected to remain at these very low 
levels over the next 2 days as there are no active regions currently 
on disc. Region 875 which produced several M-class flares on 
last rotation is expected to rotate back into view in the next 
24-36 hours. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-10 nT over the last 24 hours 
with some notable southward periods. Solar wind velocity increased 
from 300km/s at 0000UT to be 600km/s at the time of this report, 
as the earth is subjected to a high speed solar wind stream from 
a geoeffective coronal hole. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22332332
      Darwin              11   22332332
      Learmonth           11   3-232332
      Culgoora            10   22331332
      Camden               9   22322322
      Canberra             9   -2-31331
      Hobart               8   11321331
      Casey(Ant)          12   22342332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Canberra           155   (Severe storm)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
over the last 24 hours with brief Active periods observed at 
high latitudes, due to the effects of a geoeffective coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 2 days while solar wind parameters remain elevated. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Disturbed periods observed for high latitudes and some 
spread F in the last 24 hours, with some instances of sporadic 
E at mid latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
24-48 hours tending towards slightly depressed ionospheric conditions 
for mid to high latitudes due to the increase in geomagnetic 
activity from a coronal hole. Mostly normal HF conditions expected 
for low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
20 May    15    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern Aus 
and Equatorial regions with some slight enhancements during local 
day. Southern Aus and NZ regions experienced some sporadic E 
while Antartic regions experienced some spread F as well as disturbed 
ionospheric conditions from an increase in geomagnetic activty 
from the current high speed solar wind stream of the geoeffective 
coronal hole. Similar conditions are expected over for the next 
24-48 hours, with some slightly depressed periods for Antarctic, 
Southern Aus and NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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