[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 7 09:47:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar acitivity has been very low today. The
solar wind speed remained between 380 and 430 km/s until
1600UT and it then showed a gradual rise to 560 km/s by
the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the
normal value until 1100UT and then showed minor to moderate
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during the
rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the next three days. The effect
of the currently geoeffective coronal hole may keep the
solar wind stream strengthened for the next two to three
days.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 880.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 16 22224533
Darwin 18 22224543
Learmonth 9 2222--33
Culgoora 19 22115534
Camden 16 12224533
Canberra 20 22225534
Hobart 19 12215534
Casey(Ant) 14 32323343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 4343 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 26 Unsettled to active, minor storm possible.
08 May 22 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm possible.
09 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effect of the solar wind stream from the
currently geoeffective coronal hole may raise the
geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active levels with
possibility of minor storm conditions on 07 and possibly
08 May.
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
data at 1449UT on 06 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible
in HF conditions on 07 and possibly 08 May due to an
anticipated rise in geomangnetic activity during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 26 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%.
08 May 28 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
09 May 32 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to significant
degradations, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions,
on 07 and possibly 08 May due to an anticipated rise in
geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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