[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 6 09:44:14 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The 
effect of the currently geoeffective coronal hole 
remained weaker than earlier expectations. The solar 
wind speed showed a gradual rise from 320 to 390 km/s 
until 2000UT and it then decreased to 380 km/s by the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed slightly to 
moderately southwards until 0700UT and then remained 
slightly positive during most part of the remaining UT 
day. The effect of the currently geoeffective coronal 
hole solar wind stream and the CME activity on 04 May 
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 06 and 
possibly 07 May. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low to low levels during this period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32223201
      Darwin               7   22223211
      Learmonth            7   32223200
      Culgoora             7   32223201
      Camden               8   32223211
      Canberra             7   32223201
      Hobart               7   32223200
      Casey(Ant)           7   32222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   1132 5333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    26    Active to minor storm. 
07 May    16    Unsettled to active. 
08 May     8    Quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 3 May and 
is current for interval 4-6 May. The effect of the solar 
wind stream from the currently geoeffective coronal hole 
remained weaker than earliear anticipations. Therefore 
the geomagnetic activity did not rise to the previously 
predicted levels. However, the effects of a CME(observed 
on 04May) and a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole are expected to raise the geomagnetic activity upto 
active to minor storm levels on 06 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
07 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible in 
the HF conditions on o6 May due to an anticipated rise in 
the geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate 
degradations may also be observed at high latitudes on 07 
and possibly 08 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 May    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day, with periods
      of degradations.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
      of minor to significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    22    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 May    28    Near predicted monthly values 
08 May    34    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 
4 May and is current for interval 5-6 May. HF conditions 
may show minor to significant degradations, especially 
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 06 May due to an 
expected rise in the geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    66100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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