[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 8 09:49:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The solar
wind speed showed a gradual increase from 550 to 650 km/s by
0800UT and then remained between 600 and 650 km/s during the
rest of the UT day today. This strengthening in the solar wind
stream may be attributed to the previously anticipated coronal
hole effect. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations on
both sides of the normal value- staying slightly positive for
most part of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to active with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 12 23433122
Darwin 13 33433221
Learmonth 15 33443222
Culgoora 10 23333122
Camden 10 23333122
Canberra 13 23443122
Hobart 13 23443112
Casey(Ant) 12 34332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 24 2322 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 16 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm possible.
09 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
10 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 6 May and
is current for interval 7-9 May. The geomagnetic activity
remained mostly at unsettled to active levels today with
some isolated periods of minor storms at high latitude
locations. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect
seems to have been responsible for this enhancement in the
geomagnetic activity levels. However, this enhancement in
the level of activity has been slightly weaker than anticipated
as the north-south compoenent of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly positive for most part of the
UT day today. The geomagnetic activity may remain at unsettled
to active levels on 08 May with some possibility of isolated
minor storm periods, especially if Bz remains negative for
sustained periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for 09 and 10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible
in HF conditions on 08 May due to an anticipated rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 32 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
09 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 37 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on
6 May and is current for interval 7-8 May. HF conditions
may show minor to moderate degradations at times, especially
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 08 May due to an
anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 74100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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