[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 11 09:52:46 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the 
UT day with no significant flares during the period, expected 
to continue. The Earth remains in a coronal hole wind stream 
with solar wind speeds reaching 550km/s over the period. This 
is expected to ease over the next 24-48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23233222
      Darwin              10   23233222
      Learmonth            9   2323320-
      Culgoora            10   23233222
      Camden              10   23233222
      Canberra            10   23233222
      Hobart              10   23333212
      Casey(Ant)          13   34-33222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0100 0232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the 
UT day, with low level activity at all latitudes resulting from 
elevated solar wind speeds. These predominantly unsettled 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours, 
returning to quiet levels by 12 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 24-48 hours. Minor degradation of HF conditions possible 
at high latitudes over the period in response to elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar     8    Near predicted monthly values / depressed to 
                10%. 
12 Mar     8    Near predicted monthly values / depressed to 
                10%. 
13 Mar     8    Near predicted monthly values / depressed to 
                10%. 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
the N.Aus/PNG regions over the next 24-48 hours. Minor 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are 
possible in the S.Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions over the period 
in reposnse to elevated geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    91900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list