[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 10 10:07:16 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
UT day with no significant flares during the period. A small
shock was observed in the solar wind at ~0200UT, associated with
entry into a weak coronal hole wind stream. Maximum solar wind
speed over the period however was only 380km/s. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12111122
Darwin 3 12001122
Learmonth 3 12001121
Culgoora 2 12001011
Camden 5 12122212
Canberra 2 02001112
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 9 24321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day, with
the exception of a short period of activity in the high latitude
regions late in the UT day. The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-48 hours due to a coronal
hole wind stream, and should return to quiet levels by 11 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal at
low and mid latitudes for the next three days. However degradation
of HF conditions is possible in the high-mid latitude regions
over the period in response to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable depressions / enhancements to 30%
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
New predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 8 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Mar 8 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
12 Mar 5 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
the N.Aus/PNG regions over the next three days. Depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are possible in the S.Aus/NZ
regions over the period in reposnse to enhancements in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 29000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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