[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 9 09:51:20 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low levels
over the UT day with no significant flares during the period.
The solar wind speed ranged between 320 and 380 km/s, and the
North-South component of the IMF (Bz) remained close to zero
and slightly negative (Southwards). Solar activity is expected
to continue to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
A weak coronal hole is currently west of the central meridian
and should move into geoeffective position late in the UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11112121
Darwin 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 11012120
Culgoora 3 11012111
Camden 5 11122122
Canberra 3 11012111
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 6 22222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12 4433 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 6 Quiet
10 Mar 12 Unsettled
11 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very quiet over the UT day,
with the exception of some low level activity in the high latitude
regions late in the UT day. This was most likely produced by
a sustained period (>7 hours) of slightly southward orientated
IMF late in the UT day, producing enhanced merging. The geomagnetic
field is expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. A weak
coronal hole is currently west of the solar central meridian
and may produce unsettled geomagnetic conditions from 10 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal at
low and mid locations for the next three days. However degradation
of HF conditions is possible in the high-mid latitude regions
over the period in response to elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variably depressed up to 15% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 6 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
10 Mar 3 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Mar 3 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
the N.Aus/PNG regions over the next three days. Depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the S.Aus/NZ
regions over the period in reposnse to enhancements in geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list