[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 12 09:45:51 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
UT day with just one B3.4 class Xray flare recorded during the
period. The flare originated from active region 0856 which has
now rotated off the west limb. Solar activity is expected to
continue at very low levels. The Earth remains in a coronal hole
wind stream with solar wind speeds reaching 580km/s over the
period. This is expected to ease over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 22442222
Darwin 9 22332222
Learmonth 9 22342211
Culgoora 10 22341222
Camden 12 22442222
Canberra 14 22452222
Hobart 16 33452222
Casey(Ant) 13 34432221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1323 3224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 7 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled
over the UT day. Two weak impulses were observed in the geomagnetic
field at a range mid-latitude stations at ~0800UT and 1000UT
and produced a widespread period of active geomagnetic conditions
from 0800 - 1100 UT. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected
for 12 March with isolated unsettled periods due to continuing
elevated solar winds speeds. Quiet conditions expected for 13
and 14 March.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1003UT on 11 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24-48 hours. Minor degradation of HF conditions possible
at high latitudes over the period in response to elevated geomagnetic
activity in these regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
14 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal over
the past 24 hours. Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the
next 24-48 hours. Isolated periods of degraded HF possible in
NZ/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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