[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 2 09:41:53 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: The coronal hole has been slower to take effect than 
expected but the solar wind speed has risen steadily over the 
UT day from 400km/sec to 550km/sec and shows signs of stabilising 
at that level. IMF Bz has oscillated north and south so reconnection 
with the geomagnetic field is likely not strong. The four sunspots 
on the disc are small and not magnetically complex, so very unlikely 
to flare. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12231221
      Darwin               7   22231222
      Learmonth            7   12231222
      Culgoora             6   22231121
      Camden               6   12131221
      Canberra             6   12232121
      Hobart               6   12132121
      Casey(Ant)          10   2333222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
03 Jun    16    active 
04 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 30 May and is 
current for interval 31 May to 2 June. The coronal hole has been 
slower to take effect than expected although solar wind speed 
has now increased to significant levels. Geomagnetic activity 
is slowly increasing, particuarly at high latitudes. This should 
increase and become more global over the UT day. IMF Bz is oscillating 
north-south and currently not contributing to the increase in 
activity. Any prolonged southward Bz will greatly enhance the 
effect of the coronal hole solar wind speed on the geomagnetic 
field. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Fair           Normal-fair    Fair          
03 Jun      Fair           Normal-fair    Fair          
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Spread F prevalent at night at low/equatorial latitides 
and many mid-latitude stations. Coronal hole effects delayed 
so MUFs likely still enhanced. Expect conditions to degrade in 
the next 2 days as the solar wind speed has risen to significant 
levels and geomagnetic activity is slowly rising. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 15% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    28    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
03 Jun    22    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    22    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The effects of the solar coronal hole have been slower 
to appear than expected although solar wind speed is now increasing. 
The regional ionosphere is still slightly enhanced although likely 
to be suppressed to average or below critical frequencies in 
the next 2 days. Depressions unlikely to exceed 15-20%. Spread 
F is still occurring at most tropical and several mid-latitude 
stations, particularly night and pre-dawn. This is likely to 
continue and degrade night time communications at all latitudes 
over the next 2 days. Blanketing sporadic E was observed at Pt 
Moresby around dusk and a strong pre-dawn F2 layer enhancement 
at Vanimo and Pt Moresby, so the equatorial ionosphere is currently 
dynamic. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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