[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 1 09:37:40 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective about 1 June. A step change in solar wind speed
occurred ~05UT from ~300km/sec to 400km/sec and it has slowly
risen since. IMF Bz has been slightly north and south over the
UT day and it currently ~+5nT so reconnection is not occurring
with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Learmonth 4 21221101
Culgoora 2 11111100
Camden 5 22112121
Canberra 2 11111101
Hobart 2 11111100
Casey(Ant) 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2202 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 17 active
02 Jun 18 active
03 Jun 17 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 30 May and is
current for interval 31 May to 2 June. A recurrent coronal hole
is expected to become geoeffective about 1 June. Solar wind speed
is already increasing and geomagnetic activity should increase
over the UT day. IMF Bz is northwards and not expected to contribute
to the increase in activity intially.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Spread F prevalent at night at low/equatorial latitides
and also observed at selected mid-latitude stations either all
local night or pre-dawn. Strong sporadic E also observed at selected
mid-near high latitudes (NLK,HBT). Expect conditions to degrade
somewhat as the geomagnetic activity rises in response to the
coronal hole solar wind speed increase.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 23 about 15% below predicted monthly values
02 Jun 17 about 15% below predicted monthly values
03 Jun 15 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 31 May
and is current for interval 1 June only. As the effects of the
coronal hole solar wind speed increase take effect on the geomagnetic
field, it will supress the ionosphere in the next 2-3 days. Depressions
of up to 30% are possible and likely to average 15-20%. Spread
F is already occurring at most tropical and some mid-latitude
stations, particularly night and pre-dawn. This is likely to
continue and degrade night time communications at all latitudes
over the next 2-3 days together with reduced MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 23800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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