[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar region 901 has produced only one B-class flare 
over the past few day and appears to have declined in activity. 
Solar wind speeds may increase slightly over the next few days 
as the result of a small coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective 
position. Solar wind speed increased slightly over the UT day 
from 340 to 380km/sec but then declined again so the coronal 
hole effect at Earth is either still pending or current now and 
very weak. IMF Bz fluctuated north and south, mainly northward, 
so merging with geomagnetic field was shut off. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111000
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Learmonth            1   -1111000
      Culgoora             1   11011000
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             2   21021000
      Hobart               2   21111000
      Casey(Ant)           6   32221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Charters             0   (Quiet)
      asp                 NA
      Springs             NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3210 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jul     6    Quiet 
29 Jul     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds may increase slightly over the next 
few days as the result of a small coronal hole rotating into 
a geoeffective position. There is the slight chance of isolated 
active levels during this period. The expected CME shock front 
did not hit the Earth and IMF Bz has been mostly northwards so 
the geomagnetic field is starting from very quiet conditions 
and will require significant disturbances to make it active. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: T index and hence ionospheric support for HF is slightly 
enhanced above monthly median but in the absence of any significant 
ionising flux from AR901 maximum frequencies are expected to 
slowly decline to median levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 20% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    23    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Jul    20    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overall conditions are enhanced across the region but 
equatorial (northern) latitudes show stronger enhancements around 
dusk, followed by night-time depletions due to local mechanisms. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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