[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 06

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 28 09:55:26 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar region 901 produced a couple of B-class flares 
over the day and background X-ray flux increased slightly. Overall 
activity remains very low however. A weak shock was detected 
by the ACE spacecraft at the L1 point at ~13UT. This appears 
to be the delayed onset of the coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream, possibly mixed with the very delayed CME shock front. 
Vsw increased from 330km/sec and is now approaching 500km/sec. 
IMF total field increased after the shock and Bx fluctated more 
widely, mainly southwards, encouraging merging with the geomagnetic 
field. Solar wind density made a step increase at the shock front 
and temperature rose in its wake. What appears to be a small 
CME loop was observed on the eastern solar limb late in the UT 
day in SOHO spacecraft imagery, possibly indicating the approach 
of an active region. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1300UT 
on 27 Jul. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11102222
      Darwin               7   12103232
      Learmonth            6   01112233
      Culgoora             4   11102222
      Camden               5   11112222
      Canberra             3   10002222
      Hobart               2   00002112
      Casey(Ant)           5   11211123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Charters             0   (Quiet)
      asp                 NA
      Springs             NA
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3111 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     6    Quiet to unsettled 
29 Jul     7    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Jul     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 550km/sec since the 
weak shock front at 13UT associated with the delayed onset of 
the the coronal hole, possibly mixed with the very delayed CME. 
Solar wind temperature and density have also increased. This 
all suggests greater viscous interaction with the geomagnetic 
field. IMF total field has increased and the Bz north-south component 
is fluctuating although mostly southward. This has caused merging 
with the geomagnetic field and high latitude activity has already 
increased significantly. A weak magnetic impulse was observed 
at Australian mid-latitude stations at 1355UT and the field has 
subsequently become slightly unsettled at mid-latitudes. The 
combination of all the effects above are likely to make the field 
unsettled for a couple of days. Coupling of the solar wind to 
the geomagnetic field has been weaker than expected in this solstice 
period so active conditions do not appear likely. 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1355UT on 27 Jul. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal   
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: ndex and hence ionospheric support for HF is still slightly 
enhanced above monthly medians. Ionising X-ray flux from AR901 
has slightly increased which may slow the trend. Increased geomagnetic 
activity from a high speed solar wind stream may also slightly 
depress the ionsophere to offset this so overall conditions will 
be slightly enhanced. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 10% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    20    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Jul    17    near predicted monthly values 
30 Jul    18    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overall conditions are still enhanced across the region, 
less than yesterday. Equatorial (northern) latitudes still show 
strong enhancements around dusk, followed by night-time depletions 
due to equatorial mechanisms. Slightly higher ionising X-ray 
flux from solar AR901 to enhance the ionisphere will be competing 
with increased geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole solar 
wind speed increase, trying to depress the ionosphere. The nett 
result is likely to be a still slightly enhance condition. High 
latitudes are likely to be very disturbed for the next day or 
two due to IMF Bz southwards causing merging with the geomag 
field and enhancing ionospheric convection, coupled with the 
effects of the shock front at 13UT and increased solar wind speeds/densities. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    48400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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