[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar region 901 has produced several B-class flares 
over the past few days, however is unlikley to be the source 
of any significant activity. Solar wind speeds may increase slightly 
over the next few days as the result of a small coronal hole 
rotating into a geoeffective position. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Learmonth            3   21211011
      Culgoora             1   11101000
      Camden               4   22112111
      Canberra             3   22102011
      Hobart               2   11102100
      Casey(Ant)           6   22212122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1011 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     6    Quiet 
27 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds may increase slightly over the next 
few days as the result of a small coronal hole rotating into 
a geoeffective position. There is the slight chance of isolated 
active levels during this period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for equatorial 
latitudes during local day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for northern 
Australian regions during local day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    59500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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