[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 06

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 25 10:00:15 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: A region on the east limb produced a C-class flare at 
1501UT on 24 July, however, significant flare activity is unlikely. 
A transient change occurred at approximately 2330UT on 23 July 
in a couple of the solar wind parameters. This could indicate 
the possible glancing impact from the CME observed on 20 July 
and which was expected to impact the Earth on 24-25 July. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212211
      Darwin               5   22222201
      Learmonth            6   11223301
      Culgoora             5   22212211
      Camden               4   11122211
      Canberra             4   10212300
      Hobart               2   00112210
      Casey(Ant)           5   11212311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active periods. 
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and 
is current for interval 24-25 July. A transient change occurred 
at approximately 2330UT on 23 July in a couple of the solar wind 
parameters. This could indicate the possible glancing impact 
from the CME observed on 20 July and which was expected to impact 
the Earth on 24-25 July. No significant activity has yet eventuated 
with no significant activity expected over the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for equatorial 
latitudes during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local
      day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    15    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for northern 
Australian regions during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    21100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list