[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 25 09:57:51 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: A region on the east limb produced a C-class flare at 
1501UT on 24 July, however, significant flare activity is unlikely. 
A transient change occurred at approximately 2330UT on 23 July 
in a couple of the solar wind parameters. This could indicate 
the possible glancing impact from the CME observed on 20 July 
and which was expected to impact the Earth on 24-25 July. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212211
      Darwin               5   22222201
      Learmonth            6   11223301
      Culgoora             5   22212211
      Camden               4   11122211
      Canberra             4   10212300
      Hobart               2   00112210
      Casey(Ant)           5   11212311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active periods. 
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and 
is current for interval 24-25 July. A transient change occurred 
at approximately 2330UT on 23 July in a couple of the solar wind 
parameters. This could indicate the possible glancing impact 
from the CME observed on 20 July and which was expected to impact 
the Earth on 24-25 July. No significant activity has yet eventuated 
with no significant activity expected over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for equatorial 
latitudes during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local
      day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    15    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for northern 
Australian regions during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    21100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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