[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Region 901 produced several B-class flares during the 
past 24 hours, however, is unlikely to be the source of any significant 
flare activity. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               3   21111101
      Learmonth            1   11010100
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Camden               4   22112111
      Canberra             1   10110000
      Hobart               1   01110000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul    20    Unsettled to active with the slight chance of 
                minor storm periods. 
25 Jul    15    Unsettled to active 
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and 
is current for interval 24-25 July. The CME observed on 20 July 
may have a glancing impact on the Earth during 24-25 July and 
produce mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
25 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded for 
high-mid latitudes for 24-25 July as the result of anticipated 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Slightly degraded 
conditions are also possible for equatorial latitudes during 
local day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
25 Jul    10    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded for 
southern Aus/NZ regions for 24-25 July as the result of anticipated 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Slightly degraded 
conditions are also possible for northern Australian regions 
during local day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    14300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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