[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 23 09:50:40 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: New region 901 produced several B-class flares during 
the past 24 hours, however, is unlikely to be the source of any 
significant flare activity. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               3   12220002
      Learmonth            2   01220001
      Culgoora             1   01110001
      Camden               5   12112122
      Canberra             1   01110001
      Hobart               1   11100000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12221101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul     5    Quiet 
24 Jul    20    Unsettled to active with the slight chance of 
                minor storm periods. 
25 Jul    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and 
is current for interval 24-25 July. The CME observed on 20 July 
may have a glancing impact on the Earth during 24-25 July and 
produce mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
24 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
25 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
23 July with slightly degraded conditions possible for equatorial 
latitudes during local day. HF conditions are expected to be 
slightly degraded for high-mid latitudes for 24-25 July as the 
result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
25 Jul     5    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
23 July with slightly degraded conditions possible for northern 
Australian regions during local day. HF conditions are expected 
to be slightly degraded for southern Aus/NZ regions for 24-25 
July as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 287 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    11800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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