[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 5 09:43:56 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Active Region 898 produced a minor C-class flare at 
2030UT. Solar wind speed has been increasing slowly since late 
in the UT day Jul 03. This appears to be the slow onset of the 
anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Solar radio noise has increased 
with the large sunspot group in AR 898 now just past solar central 
meridian. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11123233
      Darwin               9   12123233
      Learmonth            8   11123233
      Culgoora             8   11113233
      Camden               8   22122233
      Canberra             8   01123233
      Hobart               6   01013133
      Casey(Ant)          11   12222244
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1011 0212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    12    Unsettled 
06 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream has 
been gradual, commencing late in the UT day Jul 03. Fluctuations 
in the Bz component of the inteplanetary magnetic field have 
been mild about neutral. A period of negative Bz around 2130UT 
resulted in active to minor storm conditions at high latitudes 
only. Otherwise the regional geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, 
with limited coupling between the interplanetary and geomagnetic 
fields. Expect active to minor storm conditions days one and 
two at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions at low to 
mid latitudes with the chance of active intervals. Conditions 
should decline to quiet to unsettled by day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions at low to mid latitudes. 
Possible periods of disturbance mainly local night at mid to 
high latitudes next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by up to 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening and night time spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions. Possible disturbances mainly local night hours S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions next two days due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    28700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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