[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Active Region 898 produce Type III solar radio activity 
yesterday, but no significant flares in H-alpha. Background X-ray 
flux has declined this morning and radio activity seems less. 
This may suggest flare likelyhood has dropped. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   34422222
      Darwin              13   34422222
      Learmonth           13   34421322
      Culgoora            12   34421222
      Camden              10   23422222
      Canberra            16   34532222
      Hobart              16   34532222
      Casey(Ant)          18   444222-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              94   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   1112 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    17    active 
07 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 115% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    75400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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