[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Active Region 898 produced a minor C-class flare at 
2310UT. Solar wind parameters remain at very low levels. Elevated 
solar wind parameters are anticipated due to an equatorial coronal 
hole now past central solar meridian. This feature, although 
narrow, is extensive in north latitude. A narrow, north-west 
directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 02/0742UT, 
and appears to be a far-side event. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               1   01110011
      Learmonth            0   10000001
      Culgoora             0   00000011
      Camden               5   22112221
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               0   00010000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   N/A     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul    20    Active 
05 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
06 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are at low levels and the geomagnetic 
field is quiet. A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is anticipated 
to arrive early in the UT day today, bringing active intervals 
for the following two days. Minor storm periods possible at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions at low to mid latitudes. 
Possible periods of disturbance mainly local night at mid to 
high latitudes next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening and night time spread-F observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Minor evening/night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E observed S Aus/Antarctic regions. 
Possible disturbances mainly local night hours S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions next three days due to a recurrent coronal hole wind 
stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    37200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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