[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 3 10:32:03 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Following the long duration C1 level flare observed
at 01/2230, a west-directed CME was seen in LASCO C3 imagery
at 01/2318. LASCO EIT imagery suggests that the origin of the
CME was an event beyond the west limb. If this is the case, there
is unlikely to be any geoeffective consequence of the CME. Solar
wind proton fluxes have now returned to nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 2332 1223
Darwin 9 3332 1223
Learmonth 12 3333 2323
Culgoora 8 2332 1223
Canberra 8 2332 1223
Hobart 8 2332 1222
Casey(Ant) 22 -553 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 5 Quiet
04 Jan 5 Quiet
05 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained steady throughout the
UT day, and generally quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
at low to mid latitudes. There was a period of disturbance at
high latitudes during the first half of the UT day. Expect generally
quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days. Isolated unsettled
intervals possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly normal HF propagation conditions
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced regional conditions observed
over the UT day. Brief depressions observed PNG/N Aus regions
around local dawn. Occasionally intense sporadic-E conditions
observed local daytime and evening S Aus region. Expect mostly
normal to enhanced conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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