[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:38:58 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours,
with a C1 level flare observed at 2230UT. Solar wind proton fluxes
declined steadily from the elevated levels of Dec 31. Solar wind
velocity continues to decline towards nominal values.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1329UT
on 01 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 3222
Darwin 9 2222 4213
Learmonth 10 2122 4321
Culgoora 7 2122 3222
Canberra 7 1122 3222
Hobart 7 1122 3222
Casey(Ant) 15 33-3 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3231 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 6 Quiet
03 Jan 5 Quiet
04 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity continues to decline as the recently
geoeffective coronal hole rotates past the west solar limb. There
was a minor step increase in solar wind velocity observed at
the ACE satellite platform at 1330UT, followed by a weak impulse
detected on the IPS magnetometer network at 1405UT. This was
most likely the passage of a minor shock associated with the
CME activity of Dec 29. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained mildly positive, and only brief, minor
geomagnetic activity followed the shock passage. Expect generally
quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1405UT on 01 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes
over the last 24 hours. High latitude disturbance from anticipated
geomagnetic activity did not eventuate. Expect mostly normal
HF propagation conditions next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced regional conditions observed
over the UT day. High latitude disturbances due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity did not eventuate. Widespread and occasionally
intense sporadic-E conditions observed local daytime and evening.
Expect mostly normal to enhanced conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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