[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 1 10:33:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours,
with no significant X-ray flare activity observed. There was
an increase in solar wind proton fluxes after 04UT. This was
possibly an early signature of the CME activity observed on Dec
29. Solar wind velocity continues to decline as the recently
geoeffective coronal hole rotates past the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 2221 3323
Darwin 8 2221 3323
Learmonth 9 2211 3333
Culgoora 8 2221 3322
Canberra 8 2221 3322
Hobart 7 2221 2322
Casey(Ant) 17 44-3 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2312 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity continues to decline as the recently
geoeffective coronal hole rotates past the west solar limb. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
positive until 13UT, when it switched mildly negative until late
in the UT day. The polarity reversal induced a very mild shock
in some stations of the IPS magnetometer network. Geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods
observed at high latitudes. Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions,
with the possibility of brief active periods on days one or two
resulting from a possible earth-directed component of a south-east
directed CME observed on 29 Dec.
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1328UT on 31 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions possible mainly
at high latitudes on days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 35 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions over the UT day. Mostly normal conditions observed
S Aus/Antarctic regions with extended periods of spread-F at
higher latitudes. Expect normal to enhanced conditions next three
days, with the possibility of disturbed periods S Aus/Antarctic
regions on days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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