[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: No significant flare or sunspot activity observed today. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1211
      Darwin               4   2111 1211
      Learmonth            4   2011 2211
      Culgoora             2   1011 1112
      Canberra             3   1111 1111
      Hobart               3   1111 1211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-33 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1212 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     3    Quiet 
05 Jan     3    Quiet 
06 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained steady throughout the 
UT day, and generally quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
at low to mid latitudes. Brief, isolated unsettled intervals 
were observed at high latitudes. Expect generally quiet geomagnetic 
conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes 
over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced regional conditions observed 
over the UT day. Occasionally intense sporadic-E conditions observed 
local daytime and evening N/S Aus region. Expect mostly normal 
to enhanced conditions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    63500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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