[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicated a slight bump in the 
solar wind speed to approximately 320 km/s at around 1900 UT 
due to small coronal hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field varied between -/+ 5nT since the slight increase 
in the solar wind. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110012
      Darwin               4   21100023
      Learmonth            3   21110022
      Culgoora             3   30110012
      Camden               3   12111012
      Canberra             2   11110012
      Hobart               2   11110012
      Casey(Ant)           9   33311123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to become unsettled 
today with possible periods of active levels due to high speed 
coronal hole wind stream. After today the geomagnetic field should 
return to quiet to unsettled levels for the following two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: There may be mild depressions later today due to slight 
increase in geomagnetic activity with isolated cases of spread 
F and sporadic E. Later in the UT day tomorrow HF conditions 
should return to mostly normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Feb    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb    18    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Feb    16    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect the possiblity of mild depressions today and 
tomorrow due to slight increase in geomagnetic activty. HF conditions 
should then return to mostly normal, except for isolated cases of sporadic 
E and spread F. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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