[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:05:40 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates the solar wind has climbed 
to just over 400 km/s due to small coronal hole. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between -/+ 5nT over 
the UT day and is presently about +5nT. The SOHO spacecraft LASCO 
C3 images showed a CME first appearing at 0142 UT. It was mostly 
southward directed and slightly eastward. It may have glancing 
effects on the geomagnetic field in two days time. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22312222
      Darwin               7   2-------
      Learmonth            7   22212321
      Culgoora             5   12212212
      Camden               5   12212211
      Canberra             6   12212312
      Hobart               7   22312221
      Casey(Ant)          13   24432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb    12    Unsettled 
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity will remain at unsettled levels 
today. Tomorrow expect it to return to quiet to unsettled levels 
with a possibility of a slight increase in activity in two days 
due to glancing effects of CME. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: There may be mild depressions later today due to slight 
increase in geomagnetic activity with isolated cases of spread 
F and sporadic E. Later in the UT day tomorrow HF conditions 
should return to mostly normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Feb    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Feb    26    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb    22    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 11 February with 
spread F noted at high latitudes and sporadic E noted at low 
latitudes. Expect the possiblity of mild depressions today with 
isolated cases of sporadic E and spread F. Tomorrow HF conditions 
should return to mostly normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    19600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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